Curse

Divine is Faith · Mar 18, 2008, 08:44 PM // 20:44

Quote:

I tend to retain around 50%

I also have a wide pool to see that result from.

My lucky title goes up faster than my unluck...

Don't think I can help you, seeing as I am lucky

Of course your lucky title is gonna go up faster than your unlucky. If you are lucky and keep your key your Luck title goes up by 250 points But if you are unlucky your unlucky points only go up by 25. So you would have to lose 10 lockpicks for each lock pick you retain in order for you unlucky to go up as fast. I have had both streaks myself some days I retain most my lock picks and some days I seem I cant keep a single one. My rit does have lvl 4 Lucky and lvl 3 treasure hunter so my odds are probably better than alot of other players.

Tenebrae · Mar 18, 2008, 09:34 PM // 21:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Divine is Faith

Of course your lucky title is gonna go up faster than your unlucky. If you are lucky and keep your key your Luck title goes up by 250 points But if you are unlucky your unlucky points only go up by 25. So you would have to lose 10 lockpicks for each lock pick you retain in order for you unlucky to go up as fast. I have had both streaks myself some days I retain most my lock picks and some days I seem I cant keep a single one. My rit does have lvl 4 Lucky and lvl 3 treasure hunter so my odds are probably better than alot of other players.

Erm ... soz but unlucky title rank is lucky title/10 so thats why u earn 25 points , so the % u earn on each title when u break ( for unlucky ) or retain ( for lucky ) its the same

Sol Deathgard · Mar 18, 2008, 11:04 PM // 23:04

while gaile gray was on I mentioned the retention rate of lockpicks seemed to be lower then it should be. she stated that she talked to her guildies about it & from what they told her they definetly need to check into this issue. So apparently it is a problem, & hopefully will be fixed in the next update or so.

Sol Deathgard · Mar 19, 2008, 12:08 AM // 00:08

After this last update I did a few chest runs to test the retention rate, I broke 8 outta 30, seems to be fixed. ty anet.

HawkofStorms · Mar 19, 2008, 12:13 AM // 00:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sol Deathgard

After this last update I did a few chest runs to test the retention rate, I broke 8 outta 30, seems to be fixed. ty anet.

Yeah, the parinoid people are happy. Everybody move along.

Anon-e-mouse · Mar 19, 2008, 12:28 AM // 00:28

[quote=Talarian]It's not about rolling a die, its about tossing a coin. Assuming that retain is heads and break is tails, you could easily land on tails 10, 20, 30 times in a row. Ok, I hear you say, that only works if the retain rate is 50%. If your retain rate is lower, convert the difference % of heads into tails. If higher, do the opposite. You can still get 10, 20, 30 tails in a row (I hope that makes as much sense to everyone else as it does to me!)

I used a dice analogy, because my retain rate in HM is 33%, so that means there's also 67% chance of a break, and not 50/50 as a coin toss would give, so a die roll of 1 or 2 would be a retain, and a roll of 3,4,5 or 6 would be a break. You are very unlikely to roll 3,4,5 or 6, 10 consecutive times in the real world. And yet I've had this consecutive breaking streak happen to me at least twice in the past month alone in game.

Talarian · Mar 19, 2008, 02:21 AM // 02:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anon-e-mouse

I used a dice analogy, because my retain rate in HM is 33%, so that means there's also 67% chance of a break, and not 50/50 as a coin toss would give, so a die roll of 1 or 2 would be a retain, and a roll of 3,4,5 or 6 would be a break. You are very unlikely to roll 3,4,5 or 6, 10 consecutive times in the real world. And yet I've had this consecutive breaking streak happen to me at least twice in the past month alone in game.

I'd say you would be very unlikely to roll a 3, 4, 5, or 6 100 times in a row, not 10. There is roughly a 1.7% chance of it happening (0.67^10) which may seem to be extremely low, but from a statistical standpoint it really isn't. If there was a 1.7% chance of a plane crashing, would you get on it? I certainly wouldn't

strcpy · Mar 19, 2008, 04:03 AM // 04:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sol Deathgard

while gaile gray was on I mentioned the retention rate of lockpicks seemed to be lower then it should be. she stated that she talked to her guildies about it & from what they told her they definetly need to check into this issue. So apparently it is a problem, & hopefully will be fixed in the next update or so.

No, that says they will look into it. That happens all the time and the vast vast majority of the time it comes back as "working as stated". Too many people have absolutely no understanding of what retention rates mean and when it doesn't match what they think it does something is wrong with the system.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sol Deathgard

Whatever it is, this needs to be fixed, or there is really no reason for us to be using picks anymore.

I highly suggest you quit then as it can not be "fixed" in the way you want.

There has been no evidence presented whatsoever to indicate there is a problem. OTOH there has also been no evidence whatsoever that it is correct.
At the very least retention rates are not grossly incorrect as there is enough data to show that - in fact the few places I have seen where rates are kept for long periods of time it nears what Anet publishes as the retention rate. As such even if they do find a bug it isn't going to change it much at all - it will change so little that your numbers given will still happen frequently.

Master Sword Keeper · Mar 19, 2008, 05:55 AM // 05:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by Malice Black

Moral of the story - Lockpicks are gold sinks.

I never retain in HM, and rarely in NM. Opening chests with Lockpicks in NM is retarded anyway. Most NM chests drop purples anyway. If you insist on opening NM chests, use keys.

64% Retain NM always.

15-25% HM.

Morale... Happy. =)

Sister Rosette · Mar 19, 2008, 01:04 PM // 13:04

*Shrugs* After a while you just learn to only use the ones that drop from monsters, rather than buying them. If you get something good, hey, great. If not, no coin lost on your part.

Tenebrae · Mar 19, 2008, 01:50 PM // 13:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sister Rosette

*Shrugs* After a while you just learn to only use the ones that drop from monsters, rather than buying them. If you get something good, hey, great. If not, no coin lost on your part.

if u are a casual player and dont give a shit about TH title thats ur best option , if not , lockpicks are the best.
I think my previous post was pretty clear , luck is a bitch . That Number , float , 100 sides dice or whatever u may call it affected by the Random function when u open a chest with a lockpick doesnt give a RED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GO if u opened 10000 or 10 chests before or how many lockpicks u have in ur inventory . The point is , saying that lockpick retain rate is bugged becoz u have a rush of bad luck is far beyond paranoia .... its plain stupid unless u test it on low lvl chests like Shin Jea with a 90% or more and u BREAk 100 straight lockpicks. Then MAYBE , and just MAYBE u r right .... other cases , nah.

Grubcat · Mar 19, 2008, 02:17 PM // 14:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sister Rosette

*Shrugs* After a while you just learn to only use the ones that drop from monsters, rather than buying them. If you get something good, hey, great. If not, no coin lost on your part.

I'm not going for the Lucky/Unlucky title, except incidentally through casual use, so I buy some picks when I feel flush, otherwise just hope for drops. It 'feels' as though the dropped picks are retained more often for me than the bought ones, but maybe I just feel the pain of losing the bought ones more.

I have idly wondered- if I have 5 picks in my bag, and retain one 3 times in a row, am I trying the same one all the time , or are 3 different picks used by the computer? Any statistical types worked this out yet?

Talarian · Mar 19, 2008, 02:26 PM // 14:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grubcat

I have idly wondered- if I have 5 picks in my bag, and retain one 3 times in a row, am I trying the same one all the time , or are 3 different picks used by the computer? Any statistical types worked this out yet?

I doubt the system works like that, it will probably just run a check on a variable called HAS_PICK, and if it breaks a subroutine will be called stating NUM_PICKS=NUM_PICKS-1, IF NUMPICKS=0 THEN HAS_PICK=0 ELSE HAS_PICK=1 or something along those lines (I haven't programmed since BASIC so don't call me on my terminology or syntax).

However, if it did work like that, there are two ways it could turn out:

1) The comp does just pick the first one it finds every time.

2) It picks one at random, and there is a 4% chance that it was the same pick every time, given that you already know what pick it was the first time (i.e. there is a 20% chance you'll get it next time, and a 20% chance the time after that, for three picks in a row)

Quaker · Mar 19, 2008, 02:38 PM // 14:38

Probability-wise, there's a chance that someone can open 1000 chests and break 1000 lockpicks. Someone could also open 1000 chests with only 1 lockpick.

El Presidente · Mar 28, 2008, 06:43 PM // 18:43

Having just recently maxed Treasure Hunter and tracking my retention rate every 100 chests opened (normal mode) for the last 5000 chests (all in Irontoe's ~ which imho was the fastest), my average overall retained rate was 69.8%.

This is about the quoted 68% rate I had; however, I did find that in my last 1000 chests, my average increased to 71.5% overall...even retaining high-70% and sometimes mid-80%. I also found that I hit the higher % in EU districts, specifically ~ the Spanish and Russian districts, though I only ran there mainly for less lag purposes. I usually ran from 4pm-10pm CST and all day on weekends/holidays. International districts were absolutely horrible for me % wise...the few times I ran 100 chests per, I was far short in %...

Irontoe's also found me breaking even on lockpick costs (for the present time). I didn't sell unID's to pay for them and recovered the 100k = 80 picks by selling junk to the merch and/or the good mods in game. I say for the present because I now have 7 mules full of req 9 gold to sell off !!! I'd also obtained many, many Sup Monk/Nec/Ele runes (the higher cost runes) and about 20 Sup Vigs in the last 1500-2000 chests...why, I don't know, but they were bonus money...

There were many times I broke 5-8 picks in a row. There were also many times I retained 20+ in a row. Again, this was all in NM as I was going for the dual Lucky and Treasure titles, not for the Wisdom inclusive. FYI: I ran 1000+ Istani chests for my last 250k (roughly) Lucky points and then my last few Irontoe chests to time the two for max.

I'd bought many picks from many different sellers..both the dropped picks and town owner sellers. Some were lucky percent-wise; others were not. It didn't matter if I had 10 picks in inventory or a stack. Random or superstition, I shyed away from repeat buys from a few sellers.

So overall, I've found the % in retaining lockpicks for me was slightly better than the 68% given, in the manner and districts/times I ran.

KIDGOOCH · Mar 28, 2008, 09:11 PM // 21:11

I spent 80k on festival tickets to get my char to R3 Lucky/ R2 Unlucky I have R3 Wisdom and R3 Treasure Hunter also most of the time I retain enough to say its ok, but recently I started to try and fill out my Cartography titles, and broke 5 picks in ASCALON... Something is amiss, I think...

arual · Mar 29, 2008, 01:54 AM // 01:54

When I was doing some good olde Remains of Sahlahja runs in Hard Mode for Lightbringer/Sunspear points I tracked my overall profit/losses and lockpick retention rate from opening the Locked Chests. My apparent chance to retain and my actual retention rate were pretty much the same and after selling some of the rarer skins I found I actually made a profit, albeit a small one. Admittedly my sample size (of ~250 chests) wasn't large enough to be too statistically relevant but nevertheless it seemed to be relatively 'average' - which is pretty much what I'd expected.

Miss Puddles · Mar 29, 2008, 03:04 PM // 15:04

i don't know how people are saying they have something like a 60% retention rate when the max possible is 43% >_>
http://gw.gamewikis.org/wiki/Lockpick

El Presidente · Mar 29, 2008, 03:13 PM // 15:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miss Puddles

i don't know how people are saying they have something like a 60% retention rate when the max possible is 43% >_>
http://gw.gamewikis.org/wiki/Lockpick

Factor in the Lucky title to the lockpick retention rate. At maxed Treasure and maxed Lucky, my retention rate is now 73% in NM (the 600g chests); the 43% show on Wiki is HM...

When players state any % above the 43%, they are running normal mode chests; hope that helps...

Oh...to answer the OP's question, which is the point of this thread overall, after running and tracking retention rates for my last 5000
chests...and 1000 Istani chests ~ I found absolutely nothing wrong with the stated retention rate I had earned.

chessyang · Mar 29, 2008, 04:34 PM // 16:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miss Puddles

i don't know how people....

really? i get 63% on some chest areas. rank 5 hunter and 4 luck. like El Presidente said....

Shot at 2008-03-29[IMG]

SS for "SS or GTFO people"

**edit**
oopss!! stupid chat log....